Tag Archives: Newsnight

Paul Mason’s tweets for today’s situation

Paul Mason (BBC, Newsnight) just tweeted several tweets on where we stand today concerning the Greek (and EU) crisis. I decided to copy them over here as they do tell a truth and I respect his insight in these matters. By the way, he has written some of the most accurate articles about the situation in Greece last June, before the so-called Second Memorandum.

A quick Twittersplurge on the Euro situation: 1) With G-Pap gone Greece is not “sorted”. 1a) Both Pasok and ND have deep roots in GR society

1b)…Hence Pasok tried to avoid inflicting pain on state, ND must avoid infliciting pain on urban poor, super-rich, middle classes…

1c) Not clear what, if anything, Samaras has signed up to from 26 Oct deal, since he does not believe further austerity can work.

2) An unelected Greek technocratic govt cannot do what an elected Pasok govt failed to do. Anybody busy in EU/IMF diplo understand this?

3) I go back to “anomic breakdown” – only Pasok machine stood in way of this, and as we saw KKE security squads. Also ND hope of election…

4) So now Italy: here there is a clear #Berluscomparsi dividend. He has added instability to sit, so technocratic govt might work. Howevr…

4a) “The restaurants are full” was most telling comment. Whole S Europe living dolce vita on unsustainable debt. Above all upper middleclass

5) There are 3 potential ways to save situation: EFSF, IMF, ECB. Of which… EFSF is most doable.

6) Of EFSF/ECB/IMF routes, each has a democratic impediment. USA/UK won’t do enough IMF, Germany won’t do ECB, Germany stymied EFSF v1.0

7) The Anglo-Saxon insistence on ECB route is both logical and impossible: Germany easier to persuade to redesign EFSF + go fiscal union

8) So logically, since we are in mode of overtrhowing governments who get in way of Eurocrisis resolution… the one to overthrow wd be?

9) Work it out: SPD and Greens stand for fiscal union. That’s why I asked Sarko where does it stop.

10) Meanwhile EU better hope Greeks not listening to G-Pap when he said an election would cause a bank run. The day is young.

While it lasts

The Greek referendum call is, while it lasts, effectively a plebiscite on euro membership.

I say “while it lasts” because the opposition is mobilising a parliamentary manoeuvre to bring down the government, which may succeed – returning Europe to its status quo of containable trauma.

If Greeks reject the 50% controlled default on debts they owe to the banking sector, then the arithmetic I revealed on Newsnight on the eve of the Euro summit comes into play – without a 50% haircut, and a further 130bn euro bailout, on top of 110bn, Greek debt spirals out of control and the country goes bust.

By Paul Mason, Economics Editor, Newsnight, BBC.

The rest of his article can be found here.